To investigate the weather-pandemic nexus, we collect a unique dataset covering 3376 counties in 114 states/regions from nine countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States) between 1st of January 2020 and 31st of December 2020, at a daily frequency. Thus, while the epidemiological channel implies lower cases during higher temperatures, the direction of the effect of weather through the social channel is not clear a priori, which may explain the conflicting results of previous empirical studies. From a behavioral perspective, weather alters mobility levels, social distancing, and location of social gatherings, which in turn affects the spread of the virus across individuals 19, 20, 21. Since higher temperatures harm the lipid layer of the virus 10, 16, 17, the viability of the SARS Coronavirus is substantially impaired at higher temperature levels 18. From an epidemiological standpoint, the survival and spread of a virus depends on the temperature of its environment. Weather can influence virus contagion in two distinct ways. Although a range of studies has provided empirical evidence for the negative relationship between temperature and contagion 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, several scholars come to contrasting conclusions by showing that the containment potential of weather differs substantially with respect to effect sizes, significance levels, weather indicators, regions, and time periods 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. Like other epidemic diseases, the trajectories in many countries show strong seasonal patterns with fewer cases during summer and more during winter. The effect of weather on the spread of the coronavirus is one of the most investigated research questions since the onset of the pandemic 1, 2, 3.
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